Post Tokyo Gubernatorial Election Insights: Hope vs. Old-School Politics

In this episode of Japan Edge, we dive into the aftermath of the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election. 

While the re-election of Yuriko Koike may not have been a surprise, the unexpected rise of independent candidate Shinji Ishimaru has sparked discussions about the future of Japanese politics. 

We’ll explore the impact of social media on voter mobilization, which supported Ishimaru's rise, and the enduring influence of special interest groups under the long-standing rule of the LDP, which allowed Koike and the LDP to maintain the status quo.

Join us as we unpack the key takeaways from this election, balancing hope for political engagement with the challenges posed by entrenched power structures.

Transcript

Hello and welcome back to Japan Edge, your source for everything Japan.

So, the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election just wrapped up on Sunday, and the results were pretty much what everyone expected: the incumbent Yuriko Koike securing her third term. While this may not be the most shocking news, I wanted to share my personal takeaways from this election, focusing on two key aspects: No. 1, the surprising mobilization of independents and the impact of social media on politics, and No. 2 the formidable network of interest groups resulting from the long-standing rule of the LDP.

Alright, let's dive in.

First, a bit of background on the outcome: Yuriko Koike won with 2.9 million votes, making up 42.8% of the total. Though she did lose some votes compared to the previous election, where she had over 3.6 million, it's worth noting that in the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election, no incumbent has ever lost, and this time was no exception. The biggest surprise was Shinji Ishimaru, who finished second, far ahead of Renho, a national political figure for the past 20 years. Ishimaru ran as a true independent, without any party backing, which is practically unheard of in Japan. Koike and Renho, while technically independents, had substantial support from major parties behind the scenes.

At the start of the campaign, no one expected Ishimaru to gain over a million votes, but he ended up taking 24.3% of the total. What's more impressive is that he captured the most votes from independents, with 38%, compared to Koike's 30.6% and Renho's 16.6%. This unexpected surge, dubbed the "Ishimaru Tornado" by some media outlets, was largely driven by his effective use of social media to reach younger voters. His platform, which focused on breaking away from traditional political practices, resonated with younger generations who are more open to change.

You may recall that, a couple of days into the campaign, I did a series of podcasts on the three candidates and predicted that Koike's main challenge would be her association with the LDP and special interest groups, because it’s not like Tokyo is facing any major crises at the moment and that there aren’t many dire-straight issues that could kill Koike’s political career. This turned out to be true. Koike's strategy of "hiding," doing fewer political gatherings and sticking to her day-to-day job as governor, allowed her to avoid tough questions and promote herself as a capable leader. She even used her periodic governor's briefings to boost her campaign—a move that's technically illegal, but it's Koike we're talking about.

What I found incredibly interesting and hopeful was the high level of public engagement, particularly among Ishimaru's supporters. Many people, especially the younger crowd, came out to his rallies after learning about him through YouTube. This shows that there is a growing interest in politics among younger people who are willing to make their own judgments about candidates. The voter turnout rose to 60.62%, up from 55% in the previous Tokyo election, largely thanks to Ishimaru's ability to spark public interest.

However, the election also highlighted some troubling aspects of our society. One major issue is the information gap between tech-savvy individuals and those who rely on traditional media. TV news, in particular, remains as sensational and shallow as ever. Many TV commentators criticized the candidates for not explaining their platforms clearly, but the top three candidates did make their views known on YouTube and other online platforms. The problem is that many older voters still get their news from TV, which often lacks depth and objectivity.

Another revelation from this election was the power of special interest groups. This isn't a new topic for Japanese people, but it really hit me this time how formidable these groups have become after so many years of one-party rule. We're almost at the point of becoming an authoritarian-like society. There are so many interest groups supporting the LDP because, well, why not? The LDP has been ruling the country since the end of World War II, except for a brief period between 2009 and 2013. Supporting the party comes with all kinds of perks.

If you're interested in an academic analysis of Japanese politics, I highly recommend the book "Japan’s Political Marketplace" by Dr. J Mark Ramseyer and Dr. Frances McCall Rosenbluth, published by Harvard University Press. Although it was published in 1997, not much has changed since their analysis. The LDP’s long-standing power has allowed its politicians to use bureaucrats as if they were their private staff. Through politically appointed positions as heads of ministries, politicians wield significant control over bureaucrats, who have no choice but to obey them.

In Japan, bureaucrats conceive, draft, and implement all programs, whether social, economic, financial, or military, in the shadow of the Diet. Controlling the bureaucrats essentially means controlling every aspect of law-making and regulation, which naturally affects the private sector. So, it's no surprise that corporations flock to politicians as lobbyists to get their interests realized. And This election made it clear that these groups still hold significant sway over our political landscape.

Despite these challenges, Ishimaru's strong showing gives me hope that change is possible. The rise of social media as a political tool means that more people can access diverse viewpoints and make informed decisions. This could eventually lead to greater accountability and transparency in politics.

So, while the Tokyo Gubernatorial Election might not have brought any shocking results, it did reveal some important trends and issues.  I’m just hoping that this election marks the beginning of a more informed and engaged electorate.

Alright, that’s all for today. I’ve been tackling some pretty heavy topics over the past two weeks, so for the next episode, I’m planning to switch things up and cover something a lot more fun. I hope you’ll join me again to explore the various aspects of this country.

Until next time, またね、さよなら～